New research on masks and social distancing...
#1
Quote:“In summary, we fail to find strong evidence supporting a role for more restrictive NPIs in the control of COVID in early 2020. We do not question the role of all public health interventions, or of coordinated communications about the epidemic, but we fail to find an additional benefit of stay at-home orders and business closures. The data cannot fully exclude the possibility of some benefits. However, even if they exist, these benefits may not match the numerous harms of these aggressive measures. More targeted public health interventions that more effectively reduce transmissions may be important for future epidemic control without the harms of highly restrictive measures.”

So concludes a team of researchers from Stanford University in a peer reviewed study published a couple weeks ago in the European Journal of Clinical Investigation (Eur J Clin Invest. 2021;51:e13484).

The researchers looked at the effect of global restrictions on the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus (the virus that causes COVID-19). The researchers are not right-wing political nut jobs, or global conspiracy theorists, or any other labels the political Left would like to attach, instead, the researchers are from Stanford’s various academic departments including the Department of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Center for Health Policy, the Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research, Department of Biomedical Data Science, and others.

More troubling, not only did the team merely find that the plethora of “social-distancing” antics, masks, and closures (all known as non-pharmaceutical interventions, or NPIs) have no clear evidence of benefit, they found the evidence shows that the deployment of more draconian restrictions, such as those used in the U.S., increased the spread of the disease.

Quote:“In none of the 8 countries and in none out of the 16 comparisons (against Sweden or South Korea) were the effects of mrNPIs significantly negative (beneficial). The point estimates were positive (point in the direction of mrNPIs resulting in increased daily growth in cases) in 12 out of 16 comparisons (significantly positive in 3 of the 12, in Spain and in England compared with Sweden). The only country where the point estimates of the effects of mrNPIs were negative in both comparisons was Iran… compared with Sweden; [and] compared with South Korea.”

How was the Northern Hemisphere so duped? Although legitimate experts around the world, initially including those from the U.S. CDC and the WHO, were warning societies that NPIs would NOT work, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out the nonsense of a fool that claims wearing a mask for the couple seconds while you are walking to your table in a restaurant will stop the spread of a virus, and is therefore mandatory, but you don’t need it for the next couple hours when you sit down and enjoy your meal and a drink. Does the virus somehow know that you just sat down? It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that a virus, born on a microscopic airborne particle that can travel hundreds of feet indoors can probably move around the useless plexiglass shield that is hanging from the ceiling between you and the cashier at the grocery store. It doesn’t take an epidemiologist to figure out that while wearing a mask if you can smell the smoke from a forest fire 100 miles away, you are probably breathing in the contaminated air from the people standing seven feet away from you.

What happened in the Northern Hemisphere that removed all common sense, critical thinking, intelligent assessment and prudence that allowed such insanity to prevail?

Unfortunately, that’s not the worst of it. Just like the mask wearing fool who claims wearing a mask is “better than nothing,” the science is showing the NPIs were worse than doing nothing. Recently, Dr. Scott Atlas M.D., (also from Stanford, but not a member of the research team, but is the Robert Wesson Senior Fellow at Sanford’s Hoover Institution), gave a speech in mid-February where he alluded to the fact that another study has shown that during the disastrous lock-downs, an estimated 78% of new cancers have now gone undetected in the US as a result of the lock-downs; that’s approximately 850,000 (estimated median) new, undiagnosed U.S. cancers in just a nine month period. Further, the CDC is now reporting a “…four-fold increases in depression, three-fold increases in anxiety symptoms, and a doubling of suicidal ideation, particularly among young adults after the first few months lockdowns, echoing the American Medical Associations reports of (increasing) drug overdoses and suicides.”

Dr. Atlas cited the National Bureau of Economic Research study that predicted the unintended consequences of the unemployment shockwave will result in a lower U.S. life expectancy translating to an additional 890,000 early deaths in the U.S. as a result of the lock-downs. The Stanford Study also discusses the harms of the NPI and states:

Quote:“While this study casts doubt on any firm conclusions about the effectiveness of restrictive NPIs, it also underscores the importance of more definitive evaluations of NPI effects. NPIs can also have harms, besides any questionable benefits and the harms may be more prominent for some NPIs than for others. For example, school closures may have very serious harms, estimated at an equivalent of 5.5 million life years for children in the United States during the spring school closures alone.”


Meanwhile, on the other end of the spectrum, we have that pinnacle of intellectual prowess, the President of the U.S., telling the American People if we don’ wear masks and maintain the restrictions, we are going to have more desks in the U.S. (…yes, "desks") Well, what’s wrong with more desks?

Like a pack of hounds after losing the scent of the prey, the leader balls out and the confused pack follows the one who bays the loudest (while he leads the pack further astray) Governmental representatives such as the Democratic governors of Colorado, California and others have cooed they want “heard immunity” when what they were really seeking was herd mentality. And they got it.
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#2
(04-01-2021, 07:37 AM)CaoimhinPConnell Wrote:
Quote:“In summary, we fail to find strong evidence supporting a role for more restrictive NPIs in the control of COVID in early 2020. We do not question the role of all public health interventions, or of coordinated communications about the epidemic, but we fail to find an additional benefit of stay at-home orders and business closures. The data cannot fully exclude the possibility of some benefits. However, even if they exist, these benefits may not match the numerous harms of these aggressive measures. More targeted public health interventions that more effectively reduce transmissions may be important for future epidemic control without the harms of highly restrictive measures.”

So concludes a team of researchers from Stanford University in a peer reviewed study published a couple weeks ago in the European Journal of Clinical Investigation (Eur J Clin Invest. 2021;51:e13484).

The researchers looked at the effect of global restrictions on the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus (the virus that causes COVID-19). The researchers are not right-wing political nut jobs, or global conspiracy theorists, or any other labels the political Left would like to attach, instead, the researchers are from Stanford’s various academic departments including the Department of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Center for Health Policy, the Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research, Department of Biomedical Data Science, and others.

More troubling, not only did the team merely find that the plethora of “social-distancing” antics, masks, and closures (all known as non-pharmaceutical interventions, or NPIs) have no clear evidence of benefit, they found the evidence shows that the deployment of more draconian restrictions, such as those used in the U.S., increased the spread of the disease.

Quote:“In none of the 8 countries and in none out of the 16 comparisons (against Sweden or South Korea) were the effects of mrNPIs significantly negative (beneficial). The point estimates were positive (point in the direction of mrNPIs resulting in increased daily growth in cases) in 12 out of 16 comparisons (significantly positive in 3 of the 12, in Spain and in England compared with Sweden). The only country where the point estimates of the effects of mrNPIs were negative in both comparisons was Iran… compared with Sweden; [and] compared with South Korea.”

How was the Northern Hemisphere so duped? Although legitimate experts around the world, initially including those from the U.S. CDC and the WHO, were warning societies that NPIs would NOT work, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out the nonsense of a fool that claims wearing a mask for the couple seconds while you are walking to your table in a restaurant will stop the spread of a virus, and is therefore mandatory, but you don’t need it for the next couple hours when you sit down and enjoy your meal and a drink. Does the virus somehow know that you just sat down? It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that a virus, born on a microscopic airborne particle that can travel hundreds of feet indoors can probably move around the useless plexiglass shield that is hanging from the ceiling between you and the cashier at the grocery store. It doesn’t take an epidemiologist to figure out that while wearing a mask if you can smell the smoke from a forest fire 100 miles away, you are probably breathing in the contaminated air from the people standing seven feet away from you.

What happened in the Northern Hemisphere that removed all common sense, critical thinking, intelligent assessment and prudence that allowed such insanity to prevail?

Unfortunately, that’s not the worst of it. Just like the mask wearing fool who claims wearing a mask is “better than nothing,” the science is showing the NPIs were worse than doing nothing. Recently, Dr. Scott Atlas M.D., (also from Stanford, but not a member of the research team, but is the Robert Wesson Senior Fellow at Sanford’s Hoover Institution), gave a speech in mid-February where he alluded to the fact that another study has shown that during the disastrous lock-downs, an estimated 78% of new cancers have now gone undetected in the US as a result of the lock-downs; that’s approximately 850,000 (estimated median) new, undiagnosed U.S. cancers in just a nine month period. Further, the CDC is now reporting a “…four-fold increases in depression, three-fold increases in anxiety symptoms, and a doubling of suicidal ideation, particularly among young adults after the first few months lockdowns, echoing the American Medical Associations reports of (increasing) drug overdoses and suicides.”

Dr. Atlas cited the National Bureau of Economic Research study that predicted the unintended consequences of the unemployment shockwave will result in a lower U.S. life expectancy translating to an additional 890,000 early deaths in the U.S. as a result of the lock-downs. The Stanford Study also discusses the harms of the NPI and states:

Quote:“While this study casts doubt on any firm conclusions about the effectiveness of restrictive NPIs, it also underscores the importance of more definitive evaluations of NPI effects. NPIs can also have harms, besides any questionable benefits and the harms may be more prominent for some NPIs than for others. For example, school closures may have very serious harms, estimated at an equivalent of 5.5 million life years for children in the United States during the spring school closures alone.”


Meanwhile, on the other end of the spectrum, we have that pinnacle of intellectual prowess, the President of the U.S., telling the American People if we don’ wear masks and maintain the restrictions, we are going to have more desks in the U.S. (…yes, "desks") Well, what’s wrong with more desks?

Like a pack of hounds after losing the scent of the prey, the leader balls out and the confused pack follows the one who bays the loudest (while he leads the pack further astray) Governmental representatives such as the Democratic governors of Colorado, California and others have cooed they want “heard immunity” when what they were really seeking was herd mentality. And they got it.
 Is this https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf.../eci.13484 the study you refer to?
“But all will be well, and all will be well, and every kind of thing will be well.” ~Julian of Norwich

"Sometimes you're the windshield.  Sometimes you're the bug."~Mark Knopfler (?)

"No matter who you are somebody thinks you're a heretic. Wear it like a badge of honor........... :LOL:"~Silouan
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#3
(04-01-2021, 11:33 AM)CaoimhinPConnell Wrote:
(04-01-2021, 09:57 AM)J Michael Wrote:
(04-01-2021, 07:37 AM)CaoimhinPConnell Wrote:
Quote:“In summary, we fail to find strong evidence supporting a role for more restrictive NPIs in the control of COVID in early 2020. We do not question the role of all public health interventions, or of coordinated communications about the epidemic, but we fail to find an additional benefit of stay at-home orders and business closures. The data cannot fully exclude the possibility of some benefits. However, even if they exist, these benefits may not match the numerous harms of these aggressive measures. More targeted public health interventions that more effectively reduce transmissions may be important for future epidemic control without the harms of highly restrictive measures.”

So concludes a team of researchers from Stanford University in a peer reviewed study published a couple weeks ago in the European Journal of Clinical Investigation (Eur J Clin Invest. 2021;51:e13484).

The researchers looked at the effect of global restrictions on the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus (the virus that causes COVID-19). The researchers are not right-wing political nut jobs, or global conspiracy theorists, or any other labels the political Left would like to attach, instead, the researchers are from Stanford’s various academic departments including the Department of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Center for Health Policy, the Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research, Department of Biomedical Data Science, and others.

More troubling, not only did the team merely find that the plethora of “social-distancing” antics, masks, and closures (all known as non-pharmaceutical interventions, or NPIs) have no clear evidence of benefit, they found the evidence shows that the deployment of more draconian restrictions, such as those used in the U.S., increased the spread of the disease.

Quote:“In none of the 8 countries and in none out of the 16 comparisons (against Sweden or South Korea) were the effects of mrNPIs significantly negative (beneficial). The point estimates were positive (point in the direction of mrNPIs resulting in increased daily growth in cases) in 12 out of 16 comparisons (significantly positive in 3 of the 12, in Spain and in England compared with Sweden). The only country where the point estimates of the effects of mrNPIs were negative in both comparisons was Iran… compared with Sweden; [and] compared with South Korea.”

How was the Northern Hemisphere so duped? Although legitimate experts around the world, initially including those from the U.S. CDC and the WHO, were warning societies that NPIs would NOT work, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out the nonsense of a fool that claims wearing a mask for the couple seconds while you are walking to your table in a restaurant will stop the spread of a virus, and is therefore mandatory, but you don’t need it for the next couple hours when you sit down and enjoy your meal and a drink. Does the virus somehow know that you just sat down? It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that a virus, born on a microscopic airborne particle that can travel hundreds of feet indoors can probably move around the useless plexiglass shield that is hanging from the ceiling between you and the cashier at the grocery store. It doesn’t take an epidemiologist to figure out that while wearing a mask if you can smell the smoke from a forest fire 100 miles away, you are probably breathing in the contaminated air from the people standing seven feet away from you.

What happened in the Northern Hemisphere that removed all common sense, critical thinking, intelligent assessment and prudence that allowed such insanity to prevail?

Unfortunately, that’s not the worst of it. Just like the mask wearing fool who claims wearing a mask is “better than nothing,” the science is showing the NPIs were worse than doing nothing. Recently, Dr. Scott Atlas M.D., (also from Stanford, but not a member of the research team, but is the Robert Wesson Senior Fellow at Sanford’s Hoover Institution), gave a speech in mid-February where he alluded to the fact that another study has shown that during the disastrous lock-downs, an estimated 78% of new cancers have now gone undetected in the US as a result of the lock-downs; that’s approximately 850,000 (estimated median) new, undiagnosed U.S. cancers in just a nine month period. Further, the CDC is now reporting a “…four-fold increases in depression, three-fold increases in anxiety symptoms, and a doubling of suicidal ideation, particularly among young adults after the first few months lockdowns, echoing the American Medical Associations reports of (increasing) drug overdoses and suicides.”

Dr. Atlas cited the National Bureau of Economic Research study that predicted the unintended consequences of the unemployment shockwave will result in a lower U.S. life expectancy translating to an additional 890,000 early deaths in the U.S. as a result of the lock-downs. The Stanford Study also discusses the harms of the NPI and states:

Quote:“While this study casts doubt on any firm conclusions about the effectiveness of restrictive NPIs, it also underscores the importance of more definitive evaluations of NPI effects. NPIs can also have harms, besides any questionable benefits and the harms may be more prominent for some NPIs than for others. For example, school closures may have very serious harms, estimated at an equivalent of 5.5 million life years for children in the United States during the spring school closures alone.”


Meanwhile, on the other end of the spectrum, we have that pinnacle of intellectual prowess, the President of the U.S., telling the American People if we don’ wear masks and maintain the restrictions, we are going to have more desks in the U.S. (…yes, "desks") Well, what’s wrong with more desks?

Like a pack of hounds after losing the scent of the prey, the leader balls out and the confused pack follows the one who bays the loudest (while he leads the pack further astray) Governmental representatives such as the Democratic governors of Colorado, California and others have cooed they want “heard immunity” when what they were really seeking was herd mentality. And they got it.
 Is this https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf.../eci.13484 the study you refer to?
Yes it is!
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#4
Thanks for yet another great post, CP!
“But all will be well, and all will be well, and every kind of thing will be well.” ~Julian of Norwich

"Sometimes you're the windshield.  Sometimes you're the bug."~Mark Knopfler (?)

"No matter who you are somebody thinks you're a heretic. Wear it like a badge of honor........... :LOL:"~Silouan
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#5
Some fiction here. In the 1970s, I was trained in how to deal with patients in quarantine. Face mask, like the one I'm wearing now, and hand washing.

What spreads the virus? Last summer and last week, I saw license plates from California, Colorado, Texas, Florida, New York and others, in my state. The virus gets around by car.

The fiction of 'contact tracing.' A ridiculous idea that could never have been implemented. People will always get through. Infected people.

Otherwise, the above assumptions about how the virus spreads are not valid.

Last Thanksgiving, a million people got on planes. The same last Christmas. And guess what? The expected spikes in cases and deaths occurred. Now, over a million people have been flying - and the number increases every week - and another spike.
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#6
(04-01-2021, 03:36 PM)AlanK82 Wrote: Some fiction here. In the 1970s, I was trained in how to deal with patients in quarantine. Face mask, like the one I'm wearing now, and hand washing.

What spreads the virus? Last summer and last week, I saw license plates from California, Colorado, Texas, Florida, New York and others, in my state. The virus gets around by car.

The fiction of 'contact tracing.' A ridiculous idea that could never have been implemented. People will always get through. Infected people.

Otherwise, the above assumptions about how the virus spreads are not valid.

Last Thanksgiving, a million people got on planes. The same last Christmas. And guess what? The expected spikes in cases and deaths occurred. Now, over a million people have been flying - and the number increases every week - and another spike.
Cats, dogs and birds may carry the virus, No? Should pet owners mask their cats, dogs and canaries?
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#7
(04-01-2021, 03:36 PM)AlanK82 Wrote: Some fiction here. In the 1970s, Face mask, like the one I'm wearing now, and hand washing.

What spreads the virus? Last summer and last week, I saw license plates from California, Colorado, Texas, Florida, New York and others, in my state. The virus gets around by car.

The fiction of 'contact tracing.' A ridiculous idea that could never have been implemented. People will always get through. Infected people.

Otherwise, the above assumptions about how the virus spreads are not valid.

Last Thanksgiving, a million people got on planes. The same last Christmas. And guess what? The expected spikes in cases and deaths occurred. Now, over a million people have been flying - and the number increases every week - and another spike.
Hello AllenK82 -  Thank you for your comments.

However, there are some conflated ideas and assumptions in your post. While I think I understand what you are trying to say, there are still misconceptions that would lead one to a false conclusion.

Physical laws today are still the same physical laws as in the 1970’s, viruses today (being merely particles and not living things) are still the same particles they were in the 1970s, and hooman beans are now, for all opinions to the contrary, are still the same hooman beans they were in the 1970’s, finally the same can be said for the atmosphere. Therefore, the reality is that in the 1970’s the masks you may have worn behaved the same then as they would today (technical advances notwithstanding, since it’s all based on principles of physics and physiology).  The history of respiratory protection goes back many hundreds of years.  As such, we knew in the 1970s that face masks would afford no protection against viruses in the 1970s (which is why they were never used for that purpose).

However, in the 1970’s (just like today), we incorporate the use of face-masks in Health Care Settings as merely one small element of a much larger integrated nosocomial control program.  You even pointed out another important element in your comments when you said “I was TRAINED in how to deal with patients in quarantine. ”  How many people running around with their new fashion statement face-masks have been so trained in the use, maintenance, limitations and care of the item?  From my observations, a faction hardly greater than zero.

Furthermore, such programs, which included written and enforcible protocols for fit testing, purchasing of standardized (uniform and approved equipment), donning and doffing schedules, maintenance schedules, disposal schedules, and lots of rules about “dos” and “don’ts” are a far cry from what we see today where somebody who has worn the same disposable mask for the last week pulls the filthy thing out of their purse or pocket, shakes the thing (thus dispersing the dried shot and accumulated ejecta into the surrounding atmosphere while simultaneously contaminating their hands) and then enters the grocery store to handle all kinds of surfaces including their now filthy microbial credit card to the cashier.  There is literally no correlation that can be made with someone who wore a mask as part of their duties in an health care setting in the 1970s and the current practices of community masking – therefore, no kinds of equivalency justifications can be made.

Now, viruses and cars: Well, sort of, some of the viruses, some of the time.  I think too many people got their entire knowledge of epidemiology and virology from Steven King’s “The Stand.” Well, it just doesn’t work that way.  Certainly not the SARS-CoV-2 virus.  Anyway, your comment “…the above assumptions about how the virus spreads are not valid.” is confusing, since nobody made any invalid assumptions on viral spreading in any of the preceding posts.

I don't quite understand your comments about contact tracing - contact tracing is a very valuable tool, and when used correctly, can be quite useful.
Finally, the “expected spikes” you referred to never occurred – if they did, there would be actual evidence of such.  There isn’t any such evidence.  There’s only hyped news media reports.
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#8
I have nothing to say to those who ignore "hyped news media reports." The average person relies on such reports. And while the media is obsessed with death and killing, I know people who were infected. One died, one is living with an unusual after-effect.
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#9
(04-02-2021, 05:07 PM)AlanK82 Wrote: I have nothing to say to those who ignore "hyped news media reports." The average person relies on such reports. And while the media is obsessed with death and killing, I know people who were infected. One died, one is living with an unusual after-effect.
Thank you for your comments.  Let me ask you a serious question: Have you ever known anyone who died before the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic?
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#10
(04-02-2021, 05:07 PM)AlanK82 Wrote: I have nothing to say to those who ignore "hyped news media reports." The average person relies on such reports. And while the media is obsessed with death and killing, I know people who were infected. One died, one is living with an unusual after-effect.
The average person (whoever that is) may indeed rely on MSM reports.  And the MSM is obsessed with death and killing.  It makes good copy and increases ratings and readership, i.e. money.

People who do rely (solely) on such reports are sadly under-informed and often grossly mis-informed.  And if those reports are hyped it is not a bad practice to at least take them with many grains of salt or at most ignore them.

I doubt there are many people who don't know others who have been infected  with Sars-Cov-2 (I'm pretty sure that both my wife and I had it early last year).  So what?  Many people have died.  Some *from* Covid, many *with* Covid, and many more from nothing to do with Covid.  And the loss of each human life is to be mourned, but not morbidly so.  And all who knew him or her need and deserve some comfort and consolation for their loss.  But  did you read CP's article about the Crude Mortality Rates in "How To Peddle Backwards"?  If not, I highly recommend it.  It's quite an eye-opener.


You say one person you know who had Covid is living with "an unusual after-effect".  That is a shame and I pray that God will grant them and all who suffer recovery and full health.  But, also...so what?  And I do not mean that callously, so please don't take it that way. I know quite a number of people who suffer long-term and chronic after effects from influenza, from various bites of insects, from other illnesses.  This is not unique to Covid, not by a long shot.

Covid can be terrible and even kill, but not nearly as much as others might have us believe, so do not fear it...or any other of many illnesses far worse than it.  People die all the time.  It is inevitable.  Do you fear it?  One writer, Dietrich von Hildebrand, even refers to death as, among other things, a "gate of heaven".  Tomorrow is Easter Sunday, when in the Eastern Church we joyfully declare and sing repeatedly "Christ Is Risen from the dead, trampling down death by death and upon those in the tombs bestowing [i]Life !"[/i]  And we will be risen with Him.  So, be joyful, not in death and suffering but in that Resurrection and the hope of our own.

“But all will be well, and all will be well, and every kind of thing will be well.”~Julian of Norwich
“But all will be well, and all will be well, and every kind of thing will be well.” ~Julian of Norwich

"Sometimes you're the windshield.  Sometimes you're the bug."~Mark Knopfler (?)

"No matter who you are somebody thinks you're a heretic. Wear it like a badge of honor........... :LOL:"~Silouan
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