Could Trump's massive numbers be UNDER-selling him?
#1
From the Daily Mail (UK:

Quote:So far in the 2016 presidential campaign season, a vocal crowd of political pundits have said Donald Trump's seemingly insurmountable lead in the Republican primary is based on exaggerated, inflated numbers.

There is at least one man who thinks just the opposite: Kyle Dropp,

Dropp, a political science professor at Dartmouth University, says Trump's real polling numbers may actually be even higher - because some survey respondents are shy about declaring their support for the reality TV star during phone interviews with pollsters.

Dropp told The Washington Post in a story published Monday that Trump's performance in online or automated polls exceeds his ratings from live phone interviews - 'a slight but statistically significant gulf (that) has stubbornly persisted over the six months' of Trump's campaign.

Dropp points to a theory called 'social desirability bias,' in which someone is afraid to express support for a particular candidate out of a fear of being judged.

Precedents include two gubernatorial races in California where well-known actors - Ronald Reagan in 1966 and Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2003 - were elected governor despite apparent low-performing polls possibly because of the same reason.

Dropp even conducted a study last week to test the theory of different responses to polling inquiries by automated call, online or a live interview with an actual pollster on the phone.

Trump received 38 percent online but only 32 percent in live calls. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, however, received the same percentage from both methods.

Dropp, executive director of polling for Morning Consult, also said education and personal interest in the presidential race are factors in Trump's polling trends - he seems to perform best in live phone interviews with respondents who are less educated..

'Among adults with a bachelor’s degree or postgraduate degree, Trump performs about 10 percentage points better online than via live telephone,' Dropp posted on Consult on Monday morning.

'And, among adults with some college, Trump performs more than 10 percentage points better online. Conversely, Republicans with a high school education or less favored Trump on the phone over online.'

Dropp said voters who describe themselves as 'very interested' in the primaries, or who have voted before in primary or mid-term elections, are more likely to support Trump than those who are less engaged, by a spread of eight to nine percent.

Other research finds retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, a one-time potential challenge to Trump who has slid in recent polls, actually performs better in live-call polling than online - a possible result, according to the Post, of Republican respondents eager to voice support for an African-American candidate,

A Trump spokeswoman did not respond to a request for comment.
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#2
We will see when it comes down to actual primary voters.  The amazing thing so far about Trump's campaign is that he seems to be pulling support from every corner of society in a way that not even Reagan did and have done so by spending very little of his own money to boot.  It is interesting time to watch.
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#3
Lets go hidden Trump supporters! Time to come out of proverbial closet! Hilliary is wetting her paints right about now! Thank bill she wears her depends!
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