Chinese space station: Tiangong-1 could crash into Earth and hit Europe next week
#1
The earth is about to be struck by a few tons of Chinese Technology and somewhere in the US may be its target, but where in the world it crashes is still uncertain.



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Chinese space station: Tiangong-1 could crash into Earth and hit Europe next week
Matt Drake


[Image: tiangong-1-when-will-chinese-space-stati...934761.jpg]GETTY
Tiangong 1 has been out of control since September 2016

The Tiangong-1 spacecraft has been out of control since September 2016 and could come crashing into Earth between March 30 and April 6, according to experts.

It has the highest chance of crashing into cities along a narrow strip around latitudes of 43 degrees north and south which includes a number of highly populated cities such as New York, Barcelona, Beijing, Chicago, Istanbul, Rome and Toronto.

While most of the satellite will burn up during re-entry, around 10 to 40 per cent of it is expected to survive as debris and other parts may contain the dangerous chemical hydrazine.

Senior lecturer in Aerospace Engineering at the University of Southampton Dr Hugh Lewis said: “The spacecraft is travelling around a more or less circular orbit, which is tipped with respect to the equator at 43°.

“If you plot this path on a map of the Earth, it produces a sine wave pattern, with the slower curve of the wave in northern and southern latitudes and the faster straighter sections running from east to west.

“If you imagine the green low-risk area on the map is the part of the road we’re trying to walk across, the quickest way is to go at 90 degrees – straight across.
“When the spacecraft crosses the equator, it’s crossing the road at this point, and it does so really fast.

“When it goes across the red bands further north and south, it’s crossing at a steeper angle - almost parallel to the road.

“It takes longer to cross at these latitudes, which is why it has a higher risk of coming down here.”

[Image: tiangong-1-when-will-chinese-space-stati...276455.jpg]CHINA MANNED SPACE AGENCY
Tiangong 1 went into orbit in 2011

Predictions of Tiangong-1's most likely point of impact come from Aerospace, a US research organisation based in El Segundo, California.

It says the space station will enter Earth’s atmosphere on April 4, give or take a week.

In particular risk in the northern hemisphere are northern parts of the US including Boston, Des Moines, Detroit, Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Salt Lake City.

Florence, Italy, Monaco City and Sochi and Russia are also at risk.

In the southern hemisphere, other cities which might be affected include Trelew, Argentina, Christchurch, New Zealand, and Sapporo, Japan.

Speaking to the Mail Online, Dr Lewis added: “We can’t say precisely where as we don’t know which orbit it will come in on. At this point in time it’s very difficult to say.

[Image: tiangong-1-when-will-chinese-space-stati...276456.jpg]GETTY
Tiangong 1 could crash into New York

“If you take how far in advance you make your prediction, the rule of thumb for error is around 10 per cent.

“At the moment, that's roughly 10 days, or 160 possible orbits.

“If we were to predict again with a week to go, this would narrow to less than one day, or 16 possible orbits.

“My expectation is that what little of the craft survives the atmosphere will impact the ocean.”

In recent months, the spacecraft has been speeding up and is now falling by more than 6km (3.7 miles) a week.

An astrophysicist from Harvard University, Jonathan McDowell, said: “Every couple of years something like this happens, but Tiangong-1 is big and dense so we need to keep an eye on it

“It is only in the final week or so that we are going to be able to start speaking about it with more confidence.

“I would guess that a few pieces will survive re-entry. But we will only know where they are going to land after after the fact.”
One should have an open mind; open enough that things get in, but not so open that everything falls out
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Jessie Ventura

Its no wonder truth is stranger than fiction.
Fiction has to make sense
Mark Twain

If history doesn't repeat itself, it sure does rhyme.
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C.S. Lewis
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#2
Information about its orbit may be seen here: http://www.heavens-above.com/orbit.aspx?satid=37820

Note that whilst anywhere along the path is certainly possible, most of the area under its path is ocean.  As the scientist himself says, “My expectation is that what little of the craft survives the atmosphere will impact the ocean.”  The title is quite sensational, even if technically not incorrect.

I always feel bad too, wishing things like this could be salvaged as historical artefacts.  At the very least though, I hope someone is nearby to get a video of the fireball!  Like this:
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#3
(03-22-2018, 02:24 PM)Steven Wrote: I always feel bad too, wishing things like this could be salvaged as historical artefacts.  At the very least though, I hope someone is nearby to get a video of the fireball!  Like this:
Nice, I remember that and this video. Mir was a tank in comparison to Tiangong-1 and it burned up quite nearly completely. Hope the odds hold out for an oceanic demise.
One should have an open mind; open enough that things get in, but not so open that everything falls out
Art Bell
  
I don't need a good memory, because I always tell the truth.
Jessie Ventura

Its no wonder truth is stranger than fiction.
Fiction has to make sense
Mark Twain

If history doesn't repeat itself, it sure does rhyme.
Mark Twain

You don't have a soul. You are a soul. You have a body.
C.S. Lewis
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